Written by Shane Balkham
The week ended on good news, as Iran’s foreign minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” to commercial shipping for the duration of the ceasefire in Lebanon. President Trump declared on Truth Social that Iran was surrendering all its nuclear material.
However, over the weekend these announcements were not strictly accurate, as foreign ships came under Iranian fire, and US forces seized an Iranian ship that tried to pass the blockade. These events occurred during a ceasefire that is supposed to remain in force until the middle of this week.
Even against this uncertain backdrop, US stocks are headed for their best month in six years, thanks to hopes of an end to the war with Iran and renewed enthusiasm for companies tied to the artificial intelligence theme. The S&P 500 fell sharply in the first weeks of the conflict but has rebounded since the beginning of the month, as oil prices retreated from multi-year highs. The S&P 500 was up +3.7% last week and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 was up +5.4%.
Even without evidence that the key messaging can be fully trusted, any possibility of a near-term resolution is positive for markets. The narratives that were driving markets before the war broke out are likely to reassert themselves once the conflict has quietened, and we have seen evidence of that this month, including US dollar depreciation and non-US equity market outperformance. This highlights the importance of diversification and avoiding an excessive focus on any single geographic region.
The UK delivered strong growth figures for February, showing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by +0.5%, following on from January’s +0.1% growth, which was revised upwards from no growth. The FTSE 250, made of mid-cap firms, was up +3.9% last week, higher than the large cap FTSE 100, which was only up +0.7%.
As always, diversification is a successful long-term strategy, particularly during times of equity market stress. To benefit from diversification, you need to stay invested, as history shows that attempts to “time the market” around geopolitical events often result in failure. This year has continued to demonstrate the importance of remaining appropriately diversified over the long term to deliver strong outcomes for our clients, particularly during periods of market stress.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.
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All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 20th April 2026
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