Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - The price of money

Written by Dominic Williams

Borrowing costs dominated the week, nowhere more so than at home, where gilt yields, in effect the interest rate the UK government pays to borrow, climbed to levels not seen since 2007. Two of the Bank of England's rate setters warned that inflation is becoming entrenched in the UK economy, with wage growth still too strong for it to return to the 2% target. Markets now expect rates to rise from 3.75% to 4% in November, leaving the government less room for manoeuvre ahead of the Budget on 28 October. UK shares took this in their stride, with the FTSE All Share, a broad measure of the UK market, up +0.8%. The more domestically focused FTSE 250 managed only +0.1%.

In the US, minutes from the September meeting of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, showed most officials expect another rate rise before the year-end. Shares hit record highs on Tuesday before a wobble on Thursday, when a report suggested OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is generating revenue of around $50 billion a year, well short of the near $70 billion a year reported last month. With borrowing costs this high, investors have become less forgiving of expensive AI ambitions. Chipmakers fell before rebounding on Friday. The S&P 500, a measure of 500 of America's largest companies, returned +1.3%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose just +0.4%. The equally weighted S&P 500, in which every company carries the same weight, did better still at +1.8%. For once, it was not just a handful of large technology names doing the work.

Emerging markets edged up +0.2%, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, but the detail varied. India's central bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, citing higher oil prices and a weaker rupee,  whilst Indian shares slipped -0.3%. Samsung's early estimate pointed to record quarterly profits almost nine times higher than a year earlier, yet Korean shares fell -5.2%. Having nearly doubled this year, the market had already priced in a lot of good news.

Bonds were similarly divided. Global bonds, as measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index, returned +0.2% in hedged sterling terms, helped as US government bond yields eased after touching a 24-year high on Wednesday. UK bonds did not share in the relief. The Bloomberg Sterling Aggregate Index, a broad measure of UK government and corporate bonds, fell -0.5% as the 10-year gilt yield rose to around 5.5%, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year yield climbed back above 6%, close to its highest since 1998.

Headline returns were steady, but beneath them it was an uneasy week, and with a Budget and a Bank of England decision to come and talks over the Strait of Hormuz stalled again, the coming weeks may be no calmer. Yet selling on Thursday’s technology wobble would have meant missing Friday’s rebound, and global shares and bonds both ended the week higher. Staying invested through weeks like this is what allows long-term returns to build.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 12^th October 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - The usual suspects

Written by Shane Balkham

Last week was challenging for UK and European equity markets.  Focus remains on high oil prices, rising inflation and the prospect that interest rates may stay higher for longer. In the UK, shares fell -1.9%, as measured by the FTSE All-Share index, while European shares followed a similar pattern, with the MSCI Europe ex-UK index falling 2.2%, albeit both indices showed a slight recovery on Friday.

Oil remains the main source of concern for investors, with prices far above levels seen before the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. This matters as higher energy costs can feed into both household bills and company expenses, which feeds into overall inflation. That was illustrated in Europe, as Eurozone inflation rose to 3.8% in September from 3.2% in August, with energy prices being the main contributor.  This has increased expectations that the European Central Bank may raise rates again in December.

There was better news from the UK economy. Figures released on Wednesday showed that growth in the second quarter was revised up to +0.5%, following +0.6% in the first quarter, cementing the UK as the fastest-growing major economy in the first half of 2026.

On Friday, US employment data was published, with only 29,000 jobs added in September, well below expectations, and the US unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%.  Figures for July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000 jobs, and annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%. The weaker report suggested that the US labour market is losing momentum, reducing expectations of an immediate interest-rate increase from the Federal Reserve.  The softer jobs figures helped calm markets, with US Treasury yields (the annual return you earn from holding a bond) falling slightly, as the likelihood of an October Federal Reserve rate rise reduced.

The outlook remains uncertain, which highlights the importance of having an appropriately diversified portfolio which can benefit from the changing directions of the global markets. We are advocates of long-term investing, and volatile times such as these remind us of the importance of staying invested and not trying to time the markets.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 5^th October 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - Keep calm and carry on

Written by Cormac Nevin

Bonds had another difficult week. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (a broad measure of high quality bonds around the world, hedged into sterling) returned -0.5%, UK bonds returned -0.6% and long-dated bonds fell by more. The cause was rising yields. A bond's yield is the annual return you earn from holding it, and when yields rise, prices fall. The 10-year US Treasury yield moved above 5% for the first time since 2007, and the 10-year UK gilt (a loan to the government paying a fixed rate of interest) yielded around 5.4%, close to its highest level in nearly twenty years.

Several things pushed yields higher. US business surveys came in at their strongest in over four years, evidence that the economy is coping well with the Federal Reserve's (the US central bank) decision the week before to raise interest rates to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase since 2023, with another signalled before year end. Fed officials spoke of further action to bring inflation down, and demand at two US government bond auctions was weak. Oil remained close to $100 a barrel. At home, the Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, but three of its nine members voted for a rise, with UK inflation still at 3.1%.

What is interesting about the rise in yields is that investors did not start expecting more inflation: market measures of expected US inflation have not moved upwards. Instead, the rise was almost entirely in the "real" yield, meaning the return on offer after inflation. A high-quality US government bond now pays roughly 2.5% to 3% a year more than expected inflation. For most of the past twenty years, that figure was close to zero, and at times negative. "Carry" is the income you earn simply by holding a bond, and over time it makes up most of what bonds return. At 1% or 2%, that cushion was thin. At around 5% today, higher starting yields making it more likely that better returns lie ahead for those with sufficient patience.

Equities (company shares), for their part, took the bond sell off in their stride. The MSCI All Country World Index (a broad measure of global stock markets) returned +1.8%, flattered by a weaker pound as the US dollar rose +1.1%. The technology-focused NASDAQ 100 returned +4.2%, the S&P 500 (a measure of 500 of America's largest companies) +2.1%, and South Korea, home to the world's largest memory chip makers, rose +6.7%. The FTSE All Share (a broad measure of the UK market) returned +0.4%. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (a broad measure of commodity prices) returned -0.7% as oil eased on reports of a phased US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Falling bond prices are never pleasant, but they are the mechanism by which future returns are rebuilt. The income now available across the bond market is the best in a generation, and it is exactly what diversified portfolios need to do their job. Keep calm and let the carry do its work.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 28^th September 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - Record breaking summer supports UK spending

Written by Chris Ayton

Last week, global equity markets were in positive territory, with the MSCI All Country World Index (a broad measure of global stock markets) up +0.8%. Global bond markets ended the week flat in GBP-hedged terms.

At home, it was announced that UK retail sales rose more than expected in August, rising 0.5% versus expectations of a small decline. The record-breaking summer temperatures led to higher spending on food, drink and clothing. Fuel spending also rose, but this was entirely driven by price rises, as the volume of fuel sales actually declined, as it was reported that UK motorists had started only partially filling their tanks. As expected, the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%; however, it said inflation would likely exceed 4% next year, and Governor Andrew Bailey warned prolonged conflict in the Middle East may require higher interest rates going forward. The FTSE All-Share Index ended the week up +0.2%.

In the US, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) proceeded with its widely anticipated 0.25% interest rate hike, with Fed Chief Kevin Warsh indicating that US inflation had been too high for too long. Most believe there will be further rises to come. This clearly irked President Trump, who had picked Warsh to replace Jerome Powell in the hope that he would be more inclined to cut rates, with the president posting "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!". The prospect of higher interest rates also led to a rally in the US Dollar, which meant the small weekly decline in the S&P 500 index in US Dollar terms translated into a +1.2% gain in Sterling terms. Technology companies led the way with the Nasdaq 100 index up +2.2% over the week.

European equities were the laggards, dropping -0.8% over the week and are now down -2.5% in September so far. European government bond yields rose as the market continues to bet that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates, particularly after Saudi Arabia advised they would not be able to supply oil to European buyers next month, raising fears of further inflationary pressures. German automakers, Mercedes, Volkswagen and BMW all fell sharply at the end of the week. Leading European car makers continue to battle the threat of low-cost Chinese competition, which has resulted in Volkswagen dropping out of the blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 Index for the first time in 15 years.

With global events continuing to create uncertainty, our portfolios remain well diversified and positioned to navigate changing market conditions.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 21^st September 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - Hiking when it is hot

Written by Millan Chauhan

In the United States, Friday's inflation data showed that prices in August were +3.4% higher than a year earlier, in line with expectations but ahead of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Following the release of this report, expectations for a 0.25% interest rate hike rose sharply to 87%, well above the prior week. Kevin Warsh, chair of the Federal Reserve, faces a difficult task: the central bank's dual mandate is to control inflation and support employment, but he must also manage the influence of President Trump. Historically, the Federal Reserve and the President have operated independently, but with Trump repeatedly demanding lower interest rates, that independence is under greater strain. Inflation has proved more stubborn than hoped, driven primarily by surging energy costs and housing pressures. Increased expectations of higher interest rates weighed on sentiment and risk appetite, and the S&P 500 Index (a measure of America's largest companies) declined 0.9% last week.

In the UK, the economy grew 0.4% in July, well ahead of the 0% consensus – propelled higher by a dominant services sector, where technology-related industries were particularly strong. Manufacturing activity also came in stronger, growing 0.2% month-on-month – again well ahead of forecasts. Despite signs of a stronger economic backdrop, the FTSE All-Share Index (a measure of the broader UK market) fell 1.7% last week, while the more domestically exposed FTSE 250 Index fell 2.5%. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday, with the August inflation report due beforehand, which could shape its view on the path for UK interest rates. Expectations are for rates to be held at 3.75%.

In Continental Europe, the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, its second increase this year as inflationary fears have resurfaced – linked to higher energy prices, with euro-area energy inflation reaching 14.3% in the twelve months to August. European stocks (as measured by MSCI Europe ex-UK) declined 1.9% over the week.

Global central banks are having to contend with higher input costs, which often feed through into wider inflation – including food prices. Food and energy are a different kind of cost pressure: unlike a discretionary purchase such as a new iPhone, households cannot simply go without them. Raising rates to discourage spending therefore squeezes the disposable income consumers have left, which could be detrimental to future economic growth.

In Fixed Income, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose to 4.97% last week, its highest level since October 2023. Higher yields push bond prices down, and the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (a measure of investment-grade bonds) fell 0.9%.

Broader commodity markets continued to behave independently of traditional equity and fixed-income markets. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (a broad measure of commodity prices) rose 1.7% in hedged sterling terms, supported by higher oil prices – a reminder that a multi-asset portfolio draws on several sources of return, each behaving differently.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 14^th September 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - Strong headline, softer detail

Written by Ashwin Gurung 

Tensions between the US and Iran returned to the headlines last week as the two sides traded strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea route that carries around a fifth of the world's oil. Against that backdrop, the latest US jobs data, a key measure of the health of the US economy, was the next big piece of news for markets to digest.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported an initial estimate of 162,000 jobs added in August, almost three times as many as expected. The headline looks strong, but much of the increase came from two areas: restaurants and bars added around 59,000, and local government education added another 42,000. Interestingly, much of the restaurant and bar increase only appeared after seasonal adjustments, which may have been distorted this year by the World Cup. The separate ADP report, which tracks private sector jobs only, showed just 38,000 added. The two reports measure employment differently, but the gap shows how mixed the picture is, and frequent BLS revisions mean initial estimates deserve some caution.

The August figure and an upward revision to July, alongside renewed inflation concerns from rising oil prices, increased expectations of a US interest rate rise later this month. Global bonds, which are loans to governments and large companies, declined -0.1% in hedged sterling terms, as measured by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index. Global shares, measured by the MSCI All Country World Index, also fell -0.1% in local currency terms, although a weaker pound lifted the return to +0.5% for UK-based investors. Stronger energy prices helped commodities, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index, a basket of commodities, rising +2.0% and gaining +33.6% this year, both in hedged sterling terms.

In the UK, the cost of 10-year government borrowing reached 5.2%, its highest since 2008, amid concerns about the public finances ahead of the October Budget and inflation pressure from higher oil prices. Despite some expectations of a Bank of England rate rise in November, the pound weakened, which supported the FTSE 100 (+0.1%), made up mostly of large companies earning much of their money overseas (a weaker pound makes overseas profits worth more). The FTSE 250, with greater exposure to the domestic economy (and Sterling-based profits), fell 1.4%.

Similarly, in Japan, 10-year government borrowing costs reached 3% for the first time in 30 years as the Bank of Japan signalled a possible rate rise this month and investors questioned how the government will fund heavy investment in semiconductors and AI. Nonetheless, the MSCI Japan Index returned +1.9%, driven entirely by the yen, which rose +2.5% against the pound.

With so many forces at play, no one can reliably predict what markets will do next. Whatever direction markets take, some parts of our globally diversified, multi-asset portfolios should be positioned to benefit.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 7^th September 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - Warsh makes his mark

Written by Dominic Williams 

Most of the week's attention was on the United States. On Friday, Kevin Warsh, the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, used his first Jackson Hole speech to make his position known: inflation remains too high, and interest rates may need to rise rather than fall. US inflation, as measured by the PCE index, the Fed's preferred gauge, was stuck at 3.7% in July, keeping a September rate rise on the cards. Shares still rose. The S&P 500, a broad measure of large US companies, returned +0.9% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 +0.8%. Nvidia, the world's largest maker of artificial intelligence chips, saw its sales more than double compared to a year earlier and forecast growth well ahead of what analysts had expected, easing worries that AI spending might slow. Yet the advance was thin. The equally weighted S&P 500, in which every company carries the same weight regardless of size, slipped -0.1%. A handful of names did the work.

The market took Warsh at his word. Expectations for inflation and interest rates rose, US government bond yields, in effect the cost of government borrowing, climbed to their highest since early 2025, and investors now expect a 0.25% rise at the Fed's next meeting. A renewed flare-up in the Middle East added to the pressure: oil jumped more than 3% over the bank holiday weekend, back above $90, after the US and Iran exchanged strikes.

Japan was the strongest major market. Inflation in Tokyo rose for a third month running, strengthening the case for a Bank of Japan rate rise as soon as September, yet shares still advanced +1.6%. Strong global demand for AI helped, as Japanese firms supply many of the components the technology depends on.

Emerging markets were more mixed than the headline return of +0.4% suggests. That figure comes from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which tracks larger companies across developing economies such as China, India, Taiwan and South Korea. Taiwan surged +3.4%, but South Korea fell -2.4%, giving back some of its extraordinary gains this year. The split underlines a risk: three companies, TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix, now make up more than a quarter of the index, so its direction leans heavily on a single theme.

The week's gains in equity markets rested on a few shoulders, and a brief dip in oil reversed the moment the weekend arrived. None of this is a reason to retreat, nor to chase the winners of the moment. It is why we stay invested across a wide range of regions, styles and asset classes, so that no single name or headline decides the outcome.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 1^st September 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster