Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - A ceasfire cheer

Written by Ashwin Gurung

On Tuesday evening, US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, conditional on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a large portion of the world’s oil supply flows. Markets reacted immediately and broadly positively, driving a broad-based rally across global markets.

The MSCI All Country World Index of global equities returned +2.4%. Bonds also moved higher, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate returning +0.2% in GBP-hedged terms. Conversely, oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude dropping by more than 13% in a single day. As a result, commodities were the one area of weakness over the week, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index falling -3.6% in GBP-hedged terms. However, oil prices remain well above pre-war levels, and the Bloomberg Commodity index is still up +21.8% year to date, reflecting the scale of energy market disruption since the conflict began.

Emerging markets were the standout performers of the week, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising +5.7% over the week, which had been among the hardest hit in recent weeks due to the heavy reliance on energy imports for some countries that are larger constituents of the index and the ongoing pressure that elevated oil prices place on their economies. Similarly, European markets also responded well, with the MSCI Europe ex UK index rising +3.4%. Japan’s equity market also recovered ground, but weakening of the yen versus Sterling meant the MSCI Japan Index returned +1.4%, lowering returns for GBP investors.

Artificial intelligence-related stocks also provided support to markets during the week, with large technology and semiconductor companies rising on strong demand for computing power and ongoing investment in the sector. The Nasdaq 100 Index rose +2.8%, and the MSCI Taiwan rose +8.8%, reflecting its significant exposure to the semiconductor industry, while MSCI Korea’s +8.1% return was boosted by Samsung's record quarterly earnings, which were driven by surging demand for AI memory chips.

On the economic front, US inflation data for March showed consumer prices rose 3.3% year-on-year, accelerating from 2.4% in February. Nearly three-quarters of the increase was driven by the rise in energy costs, with the energy index climbing +10.9% and gasoline prices soaring +21.2% in March, a sign that the recent rise in energy prices is beginning to feed through into the cost of everyday goods. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose a more moderate 2.6%. Elsewhere, US economic growth for the final quarter of 2025 was also revised down slightly, from 0.7% to 0.5%. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting.

While uncertainty remains, and the weeks ahead are likely to bring further volatility, it was a positive week for markets following the ceasefire deal. A good reminder that markets can recover quickly, and that staying invested with a diversified, long-term approach continues to be well placed to weather the ups and downs.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 13^th April 2026

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - While the headlines shout, compounding whispers

Written by Cormac Nevin

If the previous week was about markets reacting to rising tensions in the Middle East, last week was about investors becoming a bit more cautious. Both shares and bonds fell at the same time, which is never particularly comfortable. Global shares dropped around -1.4% over the week, with the US market falling more sharply at around -2.0%. At the same time, bond markets also declined, with most major indices down between -0.2% and -0.4%. When both of these fall together, it can feel like there is nowhere to hide. In reality, this tends to happen when markets are adjusting their expectations for interest rates.

That is exactly what we are seeing now. Earlier this year, investors expected central banks to start cutting interest rates in 2026. That now looks less certain. Instead, markets are beginning to price in the idea that interest rates may stay higher for longer.

This matters because higher interest rates affect how assets are valued. In simple terms, when rates are higher, future profits are worth a bit less today. This has a bigger impact on certain types of companies, particularly fast-growing technology firms.

This helps explain why the US market struggled more than others. The Nasdaq-100 Index, which tracks the largest US technology and growth companies, ,  fell around -3.1% over the week, while more value-focused markets, such as the UK, held up better, with the FTSE All Share actually rising +0.4%, aided by the performance of large commodity related companies listed in the UK. At the same time, ongoing tensions in the Middle East are still influencing markets, mainly through energy prices. While prices did not surge further last week, they remained elevated and continued to raise concerns about inflation.

Higher energy prices feed into the cost of many everyday things, from transport to food. Because of this, central banks are being cautious. They are less willing to cut interest rates quickly if there is a risk that inflation could rise again. Bond markets have reflected this shift. Yields have moved higher again, which means bond prices have fallen. This is why bonds have not provided their usual protection over the past few weeks.

Despite this, not everything has been negative. Commodities have continued to perform well this year, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index still up strongly year-to-date, even after a small move last week. Global Listed Infrastructure also delivered positive returns over the week, showing that some parts of the market are still holding up. This is an important point. Different assets behave differently at different times. When one part of a portfolio is struggling, another can help balance things out.

Looking at the bigger picture, at this point, this does not appear to be a long-term crisis. Instead, markets are adjusting to a slightly different environment. Inflation is still relatively contained, with longer-term expectations around 2.4% in the US. Economic data suggests growth is slowing a little, but not sharply. Companies are still expected to grow their earnings over time. In other words, the world has not fundamentally changed. What has changed is how quickly markets expect things to improve.

Periods like this are a normal part of investing. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and short-term setbacks are common, particularly when there is uncertainty around interest rates and geopolitics. For long-term investors, the key point is that portfolios are designed with this in mind. They are built to handle different environments, including ones where both shares and bonds come under pressure at the same time.

While weeks like this can feel uncomfortable, they are not unusual, and they do not tend to last forever. If anything, they serve as a reminder that staying diversified and focused on the long term remains the most reliable approach.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 30^th March 2026

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - Central banks are banking on more data

Written by Millan Chauhan

Last week, we began to see clearer signs that the war in the Middle East is influencing central banks. The conflict has pushed global energy prices higher, particularly oil and gas. Year‑to‑date, the price of crude oil has risen by around 85%, increasing from $61 per barrel to $112 while UK natural gas prices have doubled.

When energy prices rise like this, such as during the Russia‑Ukraine conflict, it feeds through into wider inflation. Higher oil and gas costs increase household energy bills, transport expenses and the cost of producing goods. Air travel also becomes more expensive, because jet fuel is a major cost for airlines. There may also be risk of further inflation if fertiliser supplies from the Gulf are disrupted which could push up global food prices.

Although these effects take time to fully impact the economy, financial markets are already reacting, particularly in bond markets. Bond yields, which reflect the cost of borrowing, have risen as investors adjust their expectations for interest rates. At the start of the year, markets expected rate cuts in 2026 in both the UK and US. That now looks less certain, with some scenarios even pointing to potential rate increases. In the UK, the 2 year government bond yield, often linked to mortgage rates, has risen sharply from 3.5% to 4.6% in March alone. This is already feeding through into higher borrowing costs for households.

As a result, central banks are becoming more cautious. Last week, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England all chose to keep interest rates unchanged. They highlighted the risk that higher energy prices could push inflation back up.

Because food and energy are essential, rising prices in these areas can have a real impact on household budgets and economic growth. The recent jump in oil prices, driven by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, puts central banks in a difficult position. They must balance controlling inflation without slowing the economy too much.

Higher oil prices have supported commodity markets this year. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which tracks 24 global commodities, has returned +23.1% so far in 2026, although it fell -0.5% last week, both in GBP-Hedged terms. Rising commodity prices are often seen as an early warning sign of inflation. Interestingly, gold, typically seen as a safe haven, fell sharply last week, dropping around -12%.

Stock markets reflected this uncertainty as global equities (measured by the MSCI All Country World Index), fell by -2.2% last week as concerns around inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions weighed on investor confidence. However, energy companies performed well, benefiting from higher oil prices.

In this environment, we continue to believe that diversification is key. Different types of investments perform well at different times, and avoiding over reliance on any single area remains important. So far this year, real assets, such as commodities and infrastructure, have shown resilience and provided valuable balance within portfolios.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 23^rd March 2026

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster

The World In A Week - Crude awakening

Written by Chris Ayton

Despite continued uncertainty driven by the challenging geopolitical backdrop, global equity markets only fell marginally over the past week with the MSCI All Country World Index down ‑0.8%. Concerns over whether an elevated oil price, and the associated impact on inflation, could limit the ability for central banks to cut interest rates in the coming months also held back global bonds with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index down -0.7% in GBP hedged terms. UK government bonds were particularly hard hit with the market having gone from predicting multiple interest rate cuts in the UK in coming months to now suggesting the next move by the Bank of England may even be up.

The impact of higher oil prices has undoubtedly been a driver of short-term price movements in many financial markets in recent weeks, including last week. Although our investment team get invited to dial into “expert” calls on the crisis on a seemingly hourly basis, we think it is impossible to predict the outcome of current geopolitical events. By adopting a diversified approach to investing, we find such moments, as concerning and horrendous as they are, typically have limited impact on longer-term client outcomes if you stay the course. It should also be noted that global equity indices remain in positive territory for the year-to-date, reflecting the benefits of global diversification.

Within equity markets, the UK equity market was one of the strongest performers last week, only falling -0.2%.  This outperformance was entirely driven by larger companies, unsurprisingly led by large oil companies such as BP and Shell, as the more domestically focused FTSE 250 index of medium sized UK companies was down -1.9% as investors perceive mid-sized companies to be more impacted by potentially higher input prices and the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer. The UK market also shrugged off the news that the UK economy failed to grow in January, which was below expectations of +0.2% growth and a snapshot taken even before the war in the Middle East and resultant spike in oil prices.

Japan’s stock market was one of the weakest last week, with the MSCI Japan Index falling -2.6%. Japan is heavily reliant upon imported energy, mostly from the Middle East, and so is more exposed when there are threats to global oil supply. Higher oil prices also increase operating costs for many manufacturers that are quite prevalent in Japanese equity indices.

Within Emerging Markets, we continued to observe large dispersion in underlying country returns. China’s stock market was relatively strong, with the MSCI China index rising +1.4% over the week. With a very different investor makeup, the Chinese equity market often dances to its own tune although the fact that China has made significant investments into renewable energy and strategic oil reserves over recent years has likely shielded it from some of the energy related fears observed elsewhere. This contrasted to India, which is a large oil importer, and the potential impact of an extended crisis helped push its market down -4.8% over the week, retaining its spot as one of the weakest performing Asian stock markets this year.

The week again highlighted the role of real assets as effective inflation-sensitive diversifiers as the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose a further +2.7%. This broad commodity index is now up +23.8% in 2026 in Sterling‑hedged terms. We much prefer this broad and diversified approach to commodities to an approach of trying to predict which individual commodity is likely to win next. While many were clamouring for gold exposure at the start of the year, most commentators thought the oil markets were in a state of oversupply. Who would have thought by just mid-March we would see a backdrop where the oil price has risen over 70%, more than four times the appreciation in gold prices in 2026 so far.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 16^th March 2026

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Greg Brewster