Two Minute Missive - 10th July
Watch the latest ‘Two Minute Missive’ from our Client Investment Director, Shane Balkham.
https://youtu.be/t5BBw5-RV6k
This video contains the opinions and views of Shane Balkham. Please work with your financial planner before undertaking any investments.
The World In A Week - A sell-off with somewhere to hide
Written by Dominic Williams
Last week was a study in how uneven a sell-off can be. Most markets ended the week lower, but where those falls landed mattered as much as their size.
At home, the bigger story was political. Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned, with Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham the frontrunner to succeed him, yet markets took it calmly. UK government bonds, known as gilts (loans to the government paying a fixed rate of interest), rallied as their yields fell, driven more by economics than politics: business activity surveys pointed to a second month of mild contraction, and with the Bank of England having held rates at 3.75% in June, the case for further rises eased. The FTSE All Share, a broad measure of the UK market, returned +1.2%.
In the US, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, core personal consumption expenditures (which strips out volatile food and energy prices), rose to 3.4%, its highest in over two years. That reinforced new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's firm stance on inflation, and investors now lean towards a rate rise later this year rather than a cut. The S&P 500, a measure of 500 of America's largest companies, returned -1.6%, while the technology-focused NASDAQ 100 fell -4.0%.
The real drama was in technology and semiconductors. An early sell-off in memory chip makers reversed after Micron, a major US chip maker, beat expectations, only for large technology names to slip again. Japan rode the same wave, the MSCI Japan Index (a broad measure of Japanese shares) ending -2.9%, while South Korea, home to the world's largest memory chip makers, fell around 10% on Monday before rebounding days later. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (a broad measure of shares from developing economies) ended -4.2%. Tellingly, though, the falls were concentrated in the largest technology names, while many other parts of the market held up or even rose, so the sell-off was far narrower than the headlines implied.
There was relief elsewhere, at least for most of the week. The oil price fell sharply as the US and Iran moved towards a deal expected to keep crude flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (a broad measure of commodity prices) returning -3.0% in hedged sterling terms. Lower energy costs should ease some pressure on inflation in time, though the truce came under strain over the weekend, so that relief is not yet secure.
Weeks like this present the clearest argument for diversification. A portfolio is not a single index: the areas that fell hardest sat alongside others that held firm, including the UK stock market and the wider bond market, both of which gained over the week. That is what diversification is for, ensuring that when one part of the market struggles, others can cushion the blow. For long-term investors, staying broadly invested remains the most reliable path through periods like this.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 29th June 2026
© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
Two Minute Missive - 26th June
Watch the latest ‘Two Minute Missive’ from our Client Investment Director, Shane Balkham.
This video contains the opinions and views of Shane Balkham. Please work with your financial planner before undertaking any investments.
The World in a Week - Onwards and upwards
Written by Chris Ayton
Last week was a strongly positive one for global equity markets, with the MSCI All Country World Index (a broad measure of global stock markets) up +2.7%. Global technology stocks continued to drive some regional markets higher, and there was also renewed hope that the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz could be closer to coming to an end.
In the US, the Federal Reserve (the US central bank, which sets interest rates) held its first meeting under new Chairman, Kevin Warsh, and kept US interest rates on hold, but the accompanying commentary signalled growing support for rate hikes later this year. Warsh himself highlighted that US inflation has remained above its target for too long and reaffirmed that it remains focused on getting this under control. This news boosted the US dollar and resulted in further weakness in the price of gold and other commodities.
Japanese equities were some of the strongest performers last week, with the MSCI Japan Index up +6.1%, benefitting from the global rally in technology and AI-related stocks. The Bank of Japan (Japan’s central bank) also increased interest rates to around 1% last week, noting “the risk of a significant slowdown in the economy appears to have decreased”. Japan’s Deputy Governor also reassured investors by stating that “Japan’s economy remains resilient, supported by solid corporate earnings and rising household incomes”.
Emerging Markets continued their ascent, again led by tech-heavy countries such as Korea (MSCI Korea Index +14.7% for the week) and Taiwan (MSCI Taiwan Index +6.7%). China was a notable laggard, as it has been for much of the year, with the MSCI China Index falling -1.4% over the week. China’s retail sales, an indicator of Chinese consumer confidence, declined in May for the first time in three years, stoking fears of a renewed slowdown in the economy. Chinese equities are now down nearly -10% this year, which contrasts with the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index (which tracks shares across developing economies), which is up over +30% over the same period.
Closer to home, UK equities, as measured by the FTSE All-Share Index (which tracks nearly all companies listed on the London Stock Exchange), fell -0.9% over the week. Despite some better-than-expected retail sales data and a small but unexpected drop in unemployment, investors became more cautious on UK assets. This was driven by news that the government had to borrow more than expected in May, renewed political uncertainty, and fears over what a likely change in Prime Minister could mean for future UK borrowing and taxation. While it is currently unclear what a new UK leader will mean for UK government policy, as ever, we believe the most appropriate strategy for dealing with short-term uncertainty is by embracing a truly diversified, longer-term focused investment solution.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 22nd June 2026
© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - When good news is bad news
Written by Millan Chauhan
Last week was a tale of two halves, with the biggest story once again coming from the United States.
For the first few days, American shares pushed higher, supported by confidence in the level of capital expenditure being committed towards the build-out of artificial intelligence and steady company profits. The S&P 500, which tracks 500 of America’s largest companies, set a new record high.
However, the mood changed on Friday. A report showed 172,000 American jobs were created in May, around double what economists had expected, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Investors took the strong figures badly, seeing the report as evidence that the Federal Reserve have less reason to cut interest rates. The S&P 500 dropped 2.2% on the day and declined by 1.9% last week.
Technology shares fell hardest. The Nasdaq-100, an index weighted towards large technology companies, dropped 4.4% on Friday and declined 3.8% last week. This was exacerbated by Broadcom, a large chip maker, delivering a weaker-than-hoped outlook for its artificial intelligence products. Inflation in the US, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) is still rising at 3.8% a year, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target set by the Federal Reserve, in part because the conflict in the Middle East has pushed up energy costs. With a strong jobs market on top of that, investors now think the US central bank is more likely to raise rates than cut them.
European markets held up better than the US, declining only slightly over the week by 0.8%. Inflation in Europe rose to 3.2% in May, kept high by the same energy costs, and Europe’s central bank is widely expected to raise its main interest rate at its next meeting, making borrowing a little more expensive across the region.
In Japan, shares reached fresh record highs earlier in the week and closed +0.2% higher over the week, though we note the Japanese market had already closed by the time the US sell-off occurred on Friday. Wages, after allowing for inflation, rose for a fourth month in a row, and comments from the head of Japan’s central bank were read as a sign that it may raise interest rates later this month to keep inflation in check.
In the UK, shares fell slightly, with the FTSE 100, the index of the 100 largest companies listed in London, down around 0.4% over the week. With little exposure to technology, the UK market was largely spared from the sell-off of this sector.
A week that swung from record highs to a sharp Friday fall is a reminder of how quickly the mood can change, and how difficult it is to time the markets. For long-term investors, the lesson is not to react to a single eye-catching data point, but to stay invested through periods of uncertainty, which has historically proved far more rewarding than reacting to short-term noise.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 8th June 2026
© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Markets gain as oil prices retreat
Written by Ashwin Gurung
Market sentiment improved over most of last week following reports that the US and Iran were moving closer to agreeing on a 60-day ceasefire extension, one that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel through which a significant share of the world's oil and gas passes. The prospect of improved energy flows helped push oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns. This further increased investor confidence that central banks may not need to raise interest rates and could have greater scope to lower rates in the future. As a result, both equity and bond markets, which had faced pressure from rising interest rate expectations for much of the year, moved higher, with global shares rising +1.3% and high-quality global bonds returning +0.8% in hedged sterling terms.
In the US, the broader economic backdrop remains more nuanced. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation rose to 3.8% in April, its highest level since mid-2023. Meanwhile, first-quarter economic growth was revised down to an annualised rate of 1.6%, weaker than previously estimated. US shares responded well despite the mixed economic backdrop. The S&P 500, a widely followed measure of the US stock market, gained +1.1%, while the Nasdaq-100, which is heavily weighted towards large technology companies, rose +2.5%, supported by continued enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence.
The UK market experienced a more mixed week. The FTSE All-Share Index declined by 0.3%, reflecting its relatively high exposure to energy companies, which came under pressure as oil prices fell. In contrast, the FTSE 250 Index, which contains a larger proportion of domestically focused businesses, rose +1.2%. Lower energy costs may help reduce input costs for UK companies while also strengthening the case for future interest rate cuts from the Bank of England.
China also lagged despite encouraging economic data, with the MSCI China Index falling -1.7%. However, the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained +3.6%, led by the MSCI Taiwan Index, which rose +6.3%. Technology and semiconductor companies led the advance following Nvidia's announcement that it plans to increase its annual spending in Taiwan to approximately $150 billion, a tenfold increase from five years ago. The divergence between Taiwan and China illustrates how differently individual emerging markets can perform, reinforcing the importance of broad diversification across the region.
Not all asset classes benefited from the improving geopolitical outlook. The same force that supported equities and bonds weighed on commodities and listed infrastructure. Energy-heavy commodities index, as measured by the BCOM Index, fell -2.5%, and the S&P Global Infrastructure Index, a measure of listed infrastructure companies around the world such as utilities, toll roads and airports, fell -1.4%, both in hedged sterling terms.
The week served as a useful reminder that diversification does not necessarily mean all investments rise together. Rather, different asset classes often respond differently to the same economic developments. While this can result in varying short-term performance, it is one of the key mechanisms through which diversification helps manage risk over the long term.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 1st June 2026
© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Diverging paths (some even go to Mars!)
Written by Ilaria Massei
The Office for National Statistics reported that UK consumer price inflation fell to 2.8% in the year to April - down moderately from 3.3% the prior month and below economist forecasts of 3.0%. Services inflation, closely watched as a measure of underlying price pressure, fell to 3.2%, its lowest level since January 2022. UK bond markets rallied on the news, reflecting reduced expectations that the Bank of England would need to keep rates restrictively high for an extended period or would have to raise those rates. UK Equities also rebounded strongly, as measured by the FTSE All Share, which rose +2.7%.
Global Equities ended the week on a positive note. One of the topics for public equities last week was that specialised chip manufacturer, Nvidia, reported first quarter revenues up 85% year-on-year to $81.6 billion, accompanied by an $80 billion share buyback. Despite beating estimates on virtually every measure, shares fell modestly - a reflection of how high the expectations are rather than any weakness in the business. Nvidia also signalled its intention to broaden its customer base beyond large technology platforms toward governments, enterprises, and the emerging world of physical AI - robotics and autonomous vehicles - suggesting its addressable market is still expanding.
Moving away from public equity markets, two of the most known private companies in AI made significant moves toward public markets this week. SpaceX filed for what could be the largest IPO - or Initial Public Offering, the moment a private company first sells its shares to the general public - in US history, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion. The business has genuine achievements - reusable rockets, the Starlink network and transformed economics of space - but the valuation demands scrutiny. The $1.75 trillion price tag reflects roughly 93 times annual revenues for a company that is not yet profitable. Investors are therefore not paying for what SpaceX earns today - they are paying for what it might become over the decades ahead. That requires a considerable degree of conviction about a very long-term and uncertain future. OpenAI - the company behind ChatGPT and one of the most recognised names in artificial intelligence - is reported to be preparing its own public listing, having most recently raised private capital at a valuation of around ~$850 billion. It too is growing rapidly but remains unprofitable.
Stock markets have had a strong start to 2026 - the MSCI All Country World Index, a broad measure of global shares, is up +10.5% for the year. However, while the environment for many AI-related leaders remains positive, not everything is pointing in the same direction. A closely watched survey of American consumers - the University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index - fell to a record low in May 2026, suggesting that, partially driven by higher oil prices, ordinary households are feeling increasingly anxious about their finances and the economy ahead. In the UK, retail sales volumes dropped by -1.3% month-over-month in April, a larger decline than consensus had expected. Much of the decrease was driven by a 10.2% decline in auto fuel sales, with retailers noting that drivers were making fewer journeys in response to higher fuel prices.
While we acknowledge this disconnect, we still believe there is significant value to be created for long-term investors. In our view, the best way to capture that value remains investing across a broad range of asset classes and geographies and maintaining that exposure with a long-term horizon.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 26th May 2026
© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - A bumpy end to a strong week
Written by Cormac Nevin
US stock markets hit fresh record highs midweek before a hotter-than-expected American inflation report and higher global interest rates cooled things by Friday. Returns for the week remained very strong however; a useful reminder that short-term headlines often have little bearing on long-term returns.
Inflation is simply the pace at which the prices of everyday things rise. Tuesday's American inflation report showed prices up 3.8% over the past twelve months. That is the fastest pace in nearly three years, and a little higher than economists had been expecting. Energy was the main culprit, with petrol at the American pump up roughly 28% on the year. This matters because when inflation runs hot, central banks become more reluctant to cut interest rates, and that disappointment tends to weigh on share prices in the short term.
In Sterling terms, the S&P 500, a broad measure of 500 of America's largest companies, finished the week up +2.3% overall, despite Friday's sharp fall. The technology-heavy Nasdaq added +1.7%, and a broad measure of shares from around the world (the MSCI All Country World Index) rose +1.5%. The UK's FTSE All Share was the exception, slipping -0.3% as political uncertainty at home weighed. UK Fixed Income markets were particularly challenged by the political turmoil last week, with broad UK bond indices down -1.7%. We think this is illustrative of the strong benefits of global diversification within Fixed Income, which we have implemented since 2018.
Weeks like this are useful for the perspective they provide. The fundamentals of the global economy have not changed in the last seven days. Companies around the world will keep selling things, customers will keep buying them, and over time, that quietly compounds. A bad Friday tends to look much smaller in a year, and barely visible in a decade. The portfolios that hold up best in moments like this are usually the ones spread broadly across many countries, industries and types of assets, so that when one corner of the market wobbles, others can offset it. Patience and diversification have, historically, done most of the heavy lifting.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 18th May 2026
© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Dispersion and diversification
Written by Dominic Williams
Last week saw several of the world's major central banks delivering their latest interest rate policy announcements. Yet the most striking feature was not what was decided, but how differently policymakers framed a remarkably similar set of pressures. Energy prices have risen materially in recent weeks, and that pressure is now being felt across most major economies.
The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all held interest rates steady. Yet beneath the uniform headlines, the dispersion was clear. The Bank of Japan, holding at 0.75%, sharply raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year, while the US Federal Reserve, holding in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, saw unusual internal disagreement over the path ahead. The Bank of England held at 3.75%, warning that energy costs could push UK inflation even higher above its 2% target, while the European Central Bank held its deposit rate at 2.0% and acknowledged that the Middle East conflict would lift near-term inflation. The common thread was a reluctance to act while oil prices remained so uncertain, but the underlying tone, particularly in Tokyo and Washington, was notably more concerned about the persistence of inflation than the headline decisions alone suggested.
Equity markets ended the week broadly flat, with the MSCI All Country World Index falling -0.1%. Beneath that calm surface, however, regional outcomes varied significantly. Japanese equities were the standout, with MSCI Japan rising +1.1% as the Yen strengthened against Sterling (+1.2%). The S&P 500 was flat and the FTSE All Share closed -0.1% lower. Asian markets bore the brunt of the energy-related weakness, reflecting the region's heavy dependence on imported oil. MSCI China fell -2.5%, MSCI Taiwan declined -2.0% and MSCI India was down -1.2%, with the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index falling -1.4% over the week.
Borrowing costs across South and Southeast Asia have risen sharply in recent weeks, reflecting concerns over the impact of higher oil prices on countries that are predominantly net energy importers. While this has weighed on these markets in the short term, it also means that investors holding their government bonds can now earn higher levels of income meaningfully than just a few months ago. Local currency emerging market debt remains a useful complementary asset held within our fixed income allocation, as its returns tend to behave differently to those of global equities and other bonds.
Meanwhile, Big Tech earnings provided another illustration of dispersion, with Meta, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon and Apple all reporting their latest profits last week. The Nasdaq-100, a US technology-focused index, rose +0.6%, but this masked very different outcomes at the company level. Alphabet rose strongly on its results, while Meta fell despite solid earnings, as investors questioned whether its rapidly rising AI capital expenditure would translate into a clear path for future revenues.
Oil markets remained firmly in focus, with Brent crude briefly pushing past $126 per barrel after President Trump indicated that the United States would maintain its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until Iran agreed to a deal to end its nuclear programme. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +3.1% in Sterling-hedged terms, with commodities continuing to provide useful diversification within portfolios.
The week was a reminder that, even when events appear to unfold in parallel, outcomes can diverge significantly. In this environment, genuine diversification across regions, asset classes and styles remains the most reliable foundation for long-term compounding.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 5th May 2026
© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Fewer jobs, fewer worries?
Written by Ilaria Massei
Sometimes in markets, weaker news is welcome news. Last week's US jobs report was the clearest example: the economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, around half of what economists expected, and previous months were revised lower too. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% largely because the rate only counts people looking for work, and fewer people were doing so. This can be translated into a gently cooling jobs market, rather than a collapsing one.
For investors, the significance lies in interest rates. With the Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh weighing whether to raise rates to combat elevated inflation, a softer jobs picture bought some breathing room. Markets slashed the odds of a rise at July's meeting, though a move in September remains possible, and with wages growing at a steady 3.5%, there is little sign of a wage-price spiral (where pay and prices chase each other upwards). The S&P 500 index (a measure of 500 of America's largest companies) returned +0.4% over the week, while the technology-focused Nasdaq-100 returned -0.5%, lowered by the US Dollar weakness.
The rotation between technology’s perceived AI winners and losers continued, with investors debating who captures AI's value rather than selling the story wholesale. The shift came after reports that Meta plans to sell its spare computing power, at a time when the price of using AI services keeps falling. That favours the giants who own the data centres - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google's parent company) and Meta itself - which can earn money renting out capacity to whichever AI model wins. It is worse for chip and memory makers, which may sell fewer new chips than markets had assumed. Micron fell sharply in the US, as did Samsung and SK Hynix in Asia - two companies so large, around half the value of the entire South Korean market, that their falls briefly halted trading in Seoul on Thursday. With earnings season ahead and growth of over 20% expected largely from AI-related firms such as Nvidia and Micron, the coming weeks will test that optimism.
At home, attention turned to the public purse. UK government bonds, known as gilts (loans to the government paying a fixed rate of interest), underperformed as investors weighed the spending plans of incoming Andy Burnham, including a reported shortfall in the defence budget. Markets have so far given him the benefit of the doubt but will watch his commitment to the fiscal rules closely.
Elsewhere, the Japanese yen fell to a 40-year low, keeping pressure on Japan's authorities to step in, while oil drifted lower as Middle East supply recovered. Natural gas, however, remains elevated on continued supply disruption - a reminder that the inflation story is not completely over.
No one can reliably predict the direction of all these forces. That is precisely why we hold diversified portfolios: so that whichever way the currents flow, part of the portfolio is positioned to benefit. For long term investors, that remains the surest course.
All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 6th July 2026
© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.