Ellen Ward

The World In A Week - Turmoil and tumbling payrolls

Written by Dominic Williams

Global equity markets gave back some recent gains, with the MSCI All Country World Index falling ‑3.1% as investors absorbed a potent combination of geopolitical shock and a weaker‑than‑expected US labour market report. The backdrop was shaped by developments over the preceding weekend, when the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering a rapid escalation of regional conflict.

Oil markets saw the most immediate and dramatic reaction. Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel over the weekend and spiked sharply to over $120 as markets reopened on Monday morning, 9 March, before retracing below $110 as markets digested further reports of damage to energy infrastructure across the Middle East. Notably, longer‑dated oil prices have barely moved, suggesting that markets see this surge as a short‑term shock rather than something likely to persist, despite the escalation raising the risk of a prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil supply normally flows. Commercial tanker traffic has all but halted, with insurers withdrawing cover and shipping companies deeming the security risk untenable. The resulting collapse in maritime flows has driven an unprecedented tightening in energy markets.

Equity markets initially showed some resilience at the beginning of the week, with most major markets ending Monday broadly flat, as investors drew comfort from the historical pattern of markets shrugging off geopolitical shocks relatively quickly. However, sentiment deteriorated through the rest of the week as concerns mounted over the economic impact of sustained energy price inflation. The S&P 500 ultimately fell -1.4% over the week, which was relatively resilient compared to other major markets, reflecting the United States’ status as a net energy exporter, which insulates it to a degree from the inflationary consequences of higher oil prices.

Asian markets bore the sharpest losses. MSCI Korea fell -12.9% over the week, its worst performance in many years, but this follows incredible gains this year, reflecting South Korea’s acute vulnerability as a major energy importer with a market heavily concentrated in energy-intensive industries. MSCI Taiwan declined -6.2% and MSCI Japan -5.9%, as the region’s dependence on Middle Eastern energy supplies weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Emerging markets as a whole fell -6.3%, with the breadth of losses masking even more severe moves in individual markets. The FTSE All Share was also notably weak, falling -5.6%, despite the relatively higher energy weighting of the index.

The week’s concerns were compounded on Friday by a markedly weak US labour market report. Non-farm payrolls, a key measure of US job creation, fell by 92,000 in February, well below the consensus expectation of around 59,000 growth and a sharp reversal from January’s downwardly revised 126,000 gain. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, and prior months were revised downward, with December and January combined showing 69,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. Although some of the weaknesses reflected temporary distortions from healthcare strikes, the broader picture remains one of a labour market that has generated very little net employment growth over the past year. Wage growth surprised slightly on the upside, rising 0.4% month‑on‑month and 3.8% year‑on‑year, adding to the uncomfortable mix of softening employment and sticky inflation that complicates the Federal Reserve’s task in setting interest rates going forward.

The week also highlighted the role of real assets as effective diversifiers, where the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose +8.1% in Sterling‑hedged terms, sharply contrasting with the broad declines across equity markets.

The week underscored the value of maintaining genuine diversification within portfolios. With equity markets facing widespread declines, the strength in commodities provided a valuable offset during a period marked by geopolitical strain and renewed inflation uncertainty. As recent events have shown, market drivers can shift abruptly, and a resilient portfolio depends on exposures that do not move in lockstep when volatility intensifies.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 9th March 2026

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Ellen Ward

The World In A Week - Cut the SaaS

Written by Cormac Nevin

While events in Iran over the weekend were troubling across a number of dimensions, the market impact this morning remains relatively muted. At the time of writing, Asian equity markets are down between 1-2%, however, this is on the back of very strong returns in February. US Equity futures markets are down a modest ~1%, reflecting the reality that the US is now a net energy exporter and far less reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. FTSE 100 futures are down only -0.68%, reflecting the composition of that market, and the US dollar has rallied a modest +0.6%. Energy and commodity/precious metals markets are up sharply, illustrating the diversification benefits they bring to a portfolio. We are mindful that recent geopolitical troubles in Iran, Venezuela and threats to NATO/Greenland have proven no impediment to the consistent compounding of returns, and interrupting that process would have proved costly.

Last week was a good one for market returns; the MSCI All Country World Index was up +0.8%, boosted by very strong returns from Emerging Markets (+3.3%) and Japan (+3.0%). The US market was the largest underperformer (0.0%).

Away from geopolitics, one of the most important market stories in recent months has been the sharp fall in some software companies, particularly those operating on a “software-as-a-service” (SaaS) model. The reason is simple: artificial intelligence tools are becoming very good at writing and improving computer code. Your author has downloaded Claude Code on his personal machine and has been blown away by its capabilities. If software can be built faster, more cheaply and by anyone, investors are questioning whether some companies can continue charging high subscription fees and maintaining very high profit margins. Many of these companies have been market darlings for the past decade, touting the “quality” characteristics of their asset-light, high-margin business models, and they traded on a very high premium for that reason. Indeed, over-indexing on these sorts of businesses arguably made the fortunes of many fund managers who are household names in the UK.

This does not mean software businesses are in trouble across the board, and opportunities abound. Many will adapt and benefit from AI. But it does mean that investors are being more careful about paying very high prices for companies whose future profits may now be less certain and whose perceived moats may be much less defensible than previously thought.

Diversification becomes ever more important in a world that is rapidly being disrupted by new technologies.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. 

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products. 

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments. 

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 2^nd March 2026

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Ellen Ward

The World In A Week - Liberation revoked

Written by Shane Balkham

Last week’s UK inflation print was encouraging. The headline Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation, fell to 3.0% year-over-year in January, down from 3.4%, helped by a meaningful slowdown in food prices. Producer Price Inflation, which measures changes in prices charged by businesses before goods reach consumers, also showed strong evidence of cooling, strongly supporting the Bank of England’s view, as published in its Monetary Policy report, that inflation is expected to move closer to 2% over the next couple of months. At the same time, the labour market is cooling. Pay growth slowed, and the unemployment rate edged higher last week, signalling that labour demand has softened. Taken together, the case for rate cuts in the UK has strengthened, with markets now pricing a significant chance of a cut at the next meeting on 19^th March.

Moving across to the US, the Federal Reserve published its minutes from the last meeting, which unveiled a full range of opinions on the future direction of US interest rates, with cuts, a long pause, and even rate increases discussed. The overall impression gained from the minutes does suggest rate cuts are on the table, but an immediate easing does seem unlikely.

Uncertainty around the path of US rates was followed by increased uncertainty over US trade policy. The Supreme Court ruling against the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs was not unexpected. What was less predictable was President Trump imposing a 10% universal tariff, then raising it to 15%.

The Supreme Court ruling invalidates just over half of the tariffs imposed by President Trump since returning to office last year. The Supreme Court did not determine if, or under what circumstances, refunds of tariffs might be due to companies that paid them. That decision will be left to a lower court to determine, as it relates to about $175 billion of tariffs paid to date.

It is unlikely that tariffs will permanently return to lower levels. Instead, it is expected that the Trump administration will invoke other legal statutes that allow the President to impose a tariff of up to 15% for as long as 150 days without Congressional approval against countries with “larger and serious” trade imbalances.

As we have already experienced with reactionary announcements such as these, details are limited. Information around already agreed tariffs around the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which involves Mexico and Canada, as well as lower tariff agreements with countries such as the UK have yet to be announced.

However, the initial positive of the Supreme Court ruling is that President Trump will have less discretion to impose tariffs going forward and will have to follow a legal process to put future tariffs in place.

This year has continued to demonstrate the importance of being appropriately diversified over the long-term to deliver strong outcomes for our clients, particularly during periods of market stress. Having differentiated returns from various geographical areas and asset classes, such as those mentioned in this update, is an antidote to the short-term market uncertainty and geopolitics.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 23^rd February 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Ellen Ward

The World In A Week - Continued divergence

Written by Ilaria Massei

The initial market reaction to Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election victory was positive, and optimism continued throughout the week, with the MSCI Japan rising +5.9%. Given Japan’s recent history of short-lived governments, a strong majority increases the likelihood that she can deliver on her policy agenda, which is designed to support both businesses and consumers.

The Japanese bond market is historically more cautious, particularly regarding the initially proposed spending program. However, Prime Minister Takaichi has since adopted a measured, market-aware stance, easing concerns about excessive government spending. We are also monitoring where Japanese investors are directing their capital. While they currently hold significant investments abroad, a shift back to domestic assets could have a meaningful positive impact on Japan’s bond and equity markets.

In the US, annual inflation slowed to 2.4% in January - its lowest level since May 2025- down from 2.7% in the previous two months and below the 2.5% consensus forecast. This suggests moderating price pressures without a material slowdown in growth, which is a positive outcome. In contrast, China’s CPI decelerated to 0.2%, well below expectations, which justifies the government’s continued policy support measures. The S&P 500 and MSCI China indices, representing each country’s equity markets, both closed the week in negative territory, declining by -1.4% and -0.2% respectively. On a more positive note, the softer inflation reading in the US supported bond prices, particularly longer-dated maturities, with the Bloomberg US Treasury 20+ Years Index rising +2.5% in USD last week.

Meanwhile, disruption risks in software and services dominated recent market moves, largely triggered by Anthropic’s latest product launch. Its new legal automation tool and expanded AI capabilities drove a sharp global rotation out of software and related sectors. Investors are increasingly questioning the sustainability of pricing power and margins in data and professional services businesses. However, companies such as London Stock Exchange Group, which was among the stocks that were sold off, retain a strong, differentiated franchise, and the recent sell-off may offer an attractive opportunity for active managers to buy or add to already owned positions in these companies.

Despite heightened volatility and sector rotations year to date, Japanese and Emerging Market equities have performed well. With relatively more attractive valuations than the US, alongside cyclical tailwinds, a weaker dollar, and growing scrutiny of US exceptionalism, the case for diversification beyond concentrated US and USD exposure appears increasingly compelling.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 16^th February 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Ellen Ward

The World In A Week - Clear skies ahead for Japan

Written by Shane Balkham

Overnight, Japan's governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has won a two-thirds majority in the lower house, the first time this has ever happened, which means the upper house cannot stop legislation. It is relatively rare that elections provide so much clarity, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will be running the country with minimal domestic obstacles for the next couple of years.

Takaichi has a clear plan of what she wants to achieve and has the mandate to deliver it. She is prepared to boost spending to help Japan regain some global influence and is aided by corporate governance reforms that have finally gained some traction.

The next focus for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is the budget and how a proposed consumption tax cut on food will be financed. So far, Japanese equities have reacted positively, however Japanese bond investors are likely to be somewhat cautious, as bond markets tend to dislike extra borrowing that may arise.

The US has several points of concern. President Trump signed a bill ending the government shutdown, which was a muted relief. The failure of the US government to function properly has become so commonplace that financial markets barely registered.  However, because of the US government shutdown, the US Employment Situation report has been delayed until this week, while last week’s job openings were very weak and initial jobless claims came in above expectations. This has rekindled concerns over softness in the US labour market.

The Bank of England (BoE) held interest rates constant at last week’s Monetary Policy Committee, however the narrowness of the decision at 5-4 and accompanying rhetoric has increased the expectancy of an interest rate cut at the next meeting on 19^th March. The Bank’s recent forecasts for inflation show an expectation for Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) to fall back towards the target of 2% from April. There is acknowledgement that the risk of greater inflation persistence has reduced, while evidence of subdued economic growth, slack in the employment market, and wage growth easing points to future rate cuts in 2026.

The closely divided BoE decision increased markets’ conviction of these future interest rate cuts. The UK’s backdrop does give the BoE flexibility to deliver several cuts over the year, especially when reading the comments from the Committee’s members, which now sees the risk of leaving rates too high as a greater risk than returning inflation.

This year has continued to demonstrate the importance of being appropriately diversified over the long-term to deliver strong outcomes for our clients, particularly during periods of market stress. Having differentiated returns from various geographical areas and asset classes, such as those mentioned in this update, is an antidote to the short-term market uncertainty and geopolitics.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 9^th February 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Ellen Ward

The World In A Week - The unloved find some love

Written by Chris Ayton

Global equities, as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index, fell -1.4% last week but remain up +1.4% in 2026 so far. In global fixed income markets, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index was flat over the week in GBP Hedged terms, although higher risk credit and high yield bonds continued to outperform.

As Kier Starmer, Rachel Reeves and a group of UK business leaders head off to China this week in an attempt to strengthen economic ties, it was UK domestic data that contained some surprises last week. The UK Composite PMI, a measure of performance of the UK manufacturing and service sectors, came in a bit stronger than expected, following the release of some better-than-expected retail sales numbers for December. Estimates of government borrowing for December also came in lower than forecast, down 7.1% on a year ago, boosted by higher tax receipts. It wasn’t all good news, however, as there were further signs of a cooling in the labour market and the latest inflation data remained stubbornly high, causing further division on how fast UK interest rates will be able to fall in 2026. It was notable that the more domestically focused FTSE 250 Index of medium-sized companies (+0.1%) outperformed the broader FTSE All Share Index (-0.8%) over the week, as it has done so far this year (FTSE 250 Index +3.9% year-to-date vs FTSE All Share Index +2.4%). It remains to be seen whether this will be the start of a resurgence in UK mid-caps that have been so unloved, having lagged their larger-sized counterparts pretty consistently since 2020.

Smaller companies have also been outperforming in the US equity market. Although the broad US market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, is only up +0.2% in January so far, the smaller-cap focused Russell 2000 Index is up an impressive +6.7% over the same period. Friday actually broke a run of 14 consecutive trading sessions in which the Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500 Index. This rotation comes as expectations of further interest rate cuts in the US have grown, and such cuts in borrowing costs tend to disproportionately benefit smaller businesses. After more than five years of smaller company underperformance in the US, as money has flowed endlessly into large tech companies, many of these smaller companies are also meaningfully cheaper than their larger counterparts.

The MSCI Emerging Market Index was down -0.3% over the week, although in a volatile backdrop that made it one of the best performing regional equity markets globally. The MSCI Emerging Market Index has made a strong start to this year, already up +6.0%, as investors seek to diversify their equity holdings into other regions. One market yet to benefit from this dynamic is India, as the MSCI India Index is down over -7% this year, having also fallen last year. It has been reported that foreign investors have already sold US$3bn of Indian equities in 2026, taking their overall selling to over US$34bn since the September 2024 peak. This is the second largest amount of selling by foreigners and the longest period of selling in India's recent history. Although India’s economic growth continues to be strong, investors have seemingly been spooked by higher equity valuations there and the US introducing 50% tariffs on Indian exports, instead rotating into cheaper, previously unloved markets like Korea and Brazil. MSCI Korea is up almost +18% this year having been up +86% in 2025. MSCI Brazil is up approximately +14% this year after having risen +39% in 2025. India is undoubtedly home to some great companies, and this lengthy sell-off could present active managers with some potential new opportunities that have not looked as attractive for quite some time.

Away from equities, precious metals continued their ascent as the Greenland crisis sent some investors looking for safe alternatives to the US Dollar. Gold hit a record high of $5000 a troy ounce, and silver rose above $100 an ounce for the first time. The broad index of commodities, the Bloomberg BCOM Index, was up +5.3% last week and is up +9.2% in 2026 so far, both in GBP Hedged terms.

All performance figures are stated in Sterling terms, unless otherwise specified.

Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.

The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.

The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.

All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 26^th January 2026.

© 2026 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.

by Ellen Ward