The World In A Week - Buffett bets big in Japan
Written by Cormac Nevin.
Markets rallied last week as data releases such as strong housing statistics in the US allayed fears of an economic hard landing driven by the interest rate increases we have witnessed over the last year. The MSCI All Country World Index of global equities (MSCI ACWI) rallied +1.5% in GBP terms.
A market which the team has noticed getting an increasing degree of exposure from global investors recently has been the Japanese Equity market. In local terms, Japanese Equities are up +8.5% over the course of the second quarter to date, which has strongly outperformed MSCI ACWI over the same period (+1.9%). The GBP return has been reduced by a weakening in the Yen vs Sterling, therefore returning +3.6%, but it remains strongly ahead of other markets. We have been overweight to the Japanese Equity market since 2020, and find it interesting that many of the characteristics of the market which we find appealing are now being given more attention from other investors and the media. These include attractive valuations compared to, for example, the US Equity market, corporate governance reforms being driven by the Tokyo Stock Exchange and other forces including low inflation, accelerating GDP and wage data. While the Yen has proved a headwind for GBP-based investors for the year to date, we think it provides excellent diversification benefits and room for the Japanese currency to rally should the global economy deteriorate as many predict which would lead to a potential narrowing in US/Japanese interest rate differential.
Another interesting element has been the increased investment in the Japanese market from Warren Buffett. While we think investors should never slavishly follow any one investment luminary, we do think it is interesting that the Sage of Omaha now owns more stocks in Japan than in any other country besides the US via his Berkshire Hathaway holding company. Given Mr Buffett’s exceedingly long track record in finding high quality companies trading at discounted valuations, we believe that the Japanese Equity market could potentially be an excellent return driver into the future while other developed markets are more challenged from high valuations or macroeconomic turbulence.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 22nd May 2023
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Record breakers
Written by Chris Ayton.
As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) hiked interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5% last week, in the process warning that inflation will not fall as fast as expected over the next 12 months. This was a record twelfth rate rise in a row. The BoE also noted that it appreciated that only around a third of the impact from the previous rises had been felt by the UK economy, with 1.4 million people due to come off fixed rate mortgages this year, nearly 60% of which were fixed at interest rates below 2%. While this may bring hope to some that this was signalling a pause in further increases, the BoE warned that it continued to monitor indicators of persistent inflationary pressures and commented “If there were to be evidence of more persistent pressures, then further tightening in monetary policy would be required.”
More positively, the Bank significantly upgraded its forecast for UK GDP Growth, expecting 0.25% growth this year followed by 0.75% in 2024 and 2025. This was the largest upwards revision to growth expectations on record and contrasts sharply with predictions late last year that the UK was heading for the longest recession in 50 years. This was followed by confirmation from the Office of National Statistics on Friday that the UK economy had grown 0.1% in the first quarter, the same as observed in the previous quarter.
News in the US was dominated by internal fighting over the extension of the debt ceiling. Having reached the maximum it is legally allowed to borrow, the U.S. government require an extension to that limit in very short order to be able to pay its upcoming debt obligations, to avoid a destabilising default, and prevent the financial chaos that would undoubtedly ensue. Previously, these challenges have been resolved at the twenty third hour but, in the meantime, this is likely to impact market sentiment.
Less well reported was the positive news that the top U.S. national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in Vienna in an attempt to calm relations between the two superpowers. Talks were said to be ’substantive and constructive’. The souring of relations, exacerbated by the Chinese spy balloon drama in February, has undoubtedly been a drag on China’s equity market performance in 2023.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 15th May 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
UK avoids recession with 0.1% growth in Q1
GDP fell by 0.3% in March, lower than the 0.0% expected, setting the economy up for a more subdued Q2.
The World In A Week - A hike in May and go away
Written by Shane Balkham.
The world of investing has a plethora of adages by which to invest. All of which are based on shaky assumptions, but can also resonate with investors as they seem to have a semblance of truth to them. At this time of year, the adage: “Sell in May and go away” is rolled out, but few will realise that this originated in the 17th century and was about the wealthy migrating out from London in the summer months to their country estates. While out of London and without the use of a smartphone, they were unable to monitor their shares, so selling made perfect sense. Using adages in our experience is not a robust long-term investment strategy.
This year the adage could be used for the intentions of the central banks and the interest rate hiking cycle. Last week saw the Federal Reserve hike rates by 0.25% and signal the end of a continuous series of interest rate rises. The long awaited ‘pause’ has seemingly begun and attention will focus on data to see if inflation continues to fall.
The European Central Bank (ECB) also raised rates by 0.25% last week, but unlike the US, there was no signal suggesting a pause. Having started the process of hiking interest rates much later than the US and the UK, there is an argument that the ECB have much more ground to make up.
However, there is an expectation for the Bank of England to follow the Federal Reserve’s lead this week. A final hike of 0.25% is expected together with a clear signal of a pause in the hiking cycle, despite inflation having so far proved quite sticky. The meeting on Thursday also coincides with the quarterly publication of its Monetary Policy Report, which will provide further detail on the Bank’s forecasts and expectations.
This could be seen as welcome news to the markets, who have been anticipating a pause in the hiking cycle since the beginning of the year. Naturally, the medium-term view will now be dominated by expectations of when the first rate cut will arrive. However, underneath the big picture of central bank decisions, there continues to be ongoing stress in the US banking sector, and fears of economic recessions. Given the uncertainty of the short-term outlook, the need for appropriate portfolio diversification remains crucial.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 9th May 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Banking on a bailout
Written by Millan Chauhan.
Last week, we saw the third US bank seized by regulators since March with First Republic Bank being the latest casualty of higher interest rates and tighter monetary conditions. This marks the largest US banking casualty since 2008 and was driven by losses in their loan book combined with a run on their deposits. US interest rates currently sit between a target range of 4.75% and 5% and banks that have not been offering competitive enough deposit rates, in order to facilitate cheap loans, have been suffering outflows as savers transfer to money market funds paying higher rates. JP Morgan have since acquired First Republic’s deposits and a large proportion of its assets in a deal which was coordinated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan CEO announced that they will not retain the First Republic brand but instead a large majority of the deposit base will move directly into their retail banking arm called Chase.
The fate of First Republic was outlined last week as they announced that $100 billion of deposits had been withdrawn in the first quarter of 2023, despite their deposit demographic being somewhat more diversified than the likes of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank where deposits were largely derived from a more technology-focused client base. Under normal circumstances, JP Morgan wouldn’t be able to acquire a bank the size of First Republic for competition reasons, however these limits were waived in a bid to reduce further market stress and minimise losses. Some policymakers have criticised this acquisition made by JP Morgan since it has made the largest US bank even bigger and reduced competition further.
Elsewhere, companies continue to report their first quarter earnings and we saw the big US technology companies report last week whereby Artificial Intelligence (AI) was the big topic of conversation. Most of the technology names have implemented cost-cutting policies with thousands of layoffs being made, however they are investing billions as they aim to become market leaders in AI which they believe to enhance their long-term profitability. Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft stated the word “AI” a combined 168 times on their earnings call last week.
UK Government borrowing figures in the 2022-23 financial year, published on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics, came in at £13.2bn less than forecast by the Office of Budget Responsibility, although, overall public borrowing rose compared to 2021-2022. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected public spending, despite the cost-of-living subsidies that have been provided over the year by the government. The lower-than-expected borrowing has given the Chancellor some breathing room and could give way to tax cuts later in the year in his Autumn Statement.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 2nd May 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Encouraging signs?
Written by Ilaria Massei.
Last week, equity markets ended mixed with the MSCI All Country World Index +0.1% (in GBP terms), following a week with a relatively light economic calendar. In the US, the weekly jobless claims’ report brought signs of growing weakness in the labour market, but investors appeared divided on whether to treat this as good news. Some viewed this release as a sign that the Federal Reserve might stop hiking rates whereas others viewed it as a further step towards an upcoming recession. Weekly jobless claims rose a bit more than expected and also continuing jobless claims, which measure unemployed people who have been receiving unemployment benefits for a prolonged period, rose well above market expectations, reaching its highest level since November 2021.
In Europe, we are starting to see signs of divergence within policymakers with regards to the decision of hiking rates. The minutes of the March meeting of the European Central bank (ECB) showed policymakers were split. The majority voted to hike rates, however, some members said they would prefer a pause until calm returns in financial markets.
In the UK, the annual UK consumer price growth in March slowed by less than expected to 10.1% from 10.4% in February, driven by surging food and drink prices. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicated that wage growth also showed few signs of moderating in the three months through February. At the last meeting, the 0.25% interest rate rise was passed with seven in favour and two who wanted to hold rates still. However, these continued inflationary forces could lead the Bank of England to raise interest rates once more in its May meeting.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 24th April 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - Biden and the UK economy both revisit old ground
Written by Chris Ayton.
While President Joe Biden enjoyed himself revisiting his heritage in Ireland, equity markets were also in a good mood with the MSCI All Country World Index +1.2% over the week. The UK equity market was even stronger, rising +1.9%. With incremental interest rate rises still expected, fixed income securities were generally more subdued as the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index dropped -0.6% in GBP hedged terms over the week, although high yield bonds performed considerably better.
UK GDP growth data was released that showed the strike-impacted economy flatlining over February, but an upward revision to January’s growth figure means the size of the UK economy has finally surpassed where it was in February 2020, prior to the Covid pandemic. Sterling has also continued to be robust against the US Dollar, hitting a 10-month high of $1.2546 during the week, a level more than 20% above where it sat in the nadir of September last year.
In the US, better than expected Q1 earnings results from Citigroup, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo eased some lingering concerns about the recent banking turmoil. Despite some signs of a softening labour market, US consumer sentiment also surprised on the upside, reigniting expectations of a further rate hike from the Federal Reserve in May.
China was a rare weak spot for equities, with MSCI China dropping -0.4% over the week. This was despite data showing export growth had surged 15% in March, driven by increasing sales of electric vehicles and their components as well as a surge in trade with Russia. With exports still a key component of China’s economy, the data provided some renewed hope that China can achieve the Government’s 5% GDP growth target for 2023.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 17th April 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - A shock to the system
Written by Shane Balkham.
One of the key economic metrics for determining the state of the economy that central banks monitor is employment. We know that both the Federal Reserve in the US, as well as the Bank of England, would like to see a weakening of employment, as this should in turn have a disinflationary effect on the overall economy. When employment is strong, it can create upward pressure on wages, and increase consumer demand.
Last week we had two data releases for US employment. The JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) showed that the number of official job vacancies in the US had dropped below 10 million for the first time since May 2021. The ratio for the number of jobs available compared to the number of people seeking jobs had reached more than 2x at some points last year; the latest measure has this ratio down to 1.7x. Wage growth has also slowed; on a year-by-year basis, wages have increased 4.2%, the lowest reading since the summer of 2021.
Another measure of the labour market in the US also showed jobs growth had slowed during March. Non-farm payroll data showed 236,000 jobs were added in March, slightly weaker than the expected 239,000.
Employment data is a lagging indicator and subject to revisions. The number of jobs recorded by non-farm payroll in February was originally recorded as 311,000 before being upwardly revised to 326,000, while in January the initial number of jobs added was 504,000 before being adjusted downwards to 472,000. Whilst still elevated, the numbers are trending downwards, which is important for those making decisions about the future of interest rates.
The signs of a gradual weakening in employment does suggest that inflationary pressures are easing in the US. However, whether this is sufficient for the Federal Reserve to pause its rate hiking cycle at its next meeting in May is unclear. The extent of the fallout from the banking sector turmoil has not yet been quantified, as the market is anticipating tighter lending standards and a slowdown in economic activity. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has been quoted as saying that a tightening in financial conditions would be equivalent to another rate hike.
There are three weeks until the Federal Reserve Committee and Bank of England Committee meet to set interest rates. Whether the decisions are to hike or to pause, it does seem we are close to the peak of the interest rate hiking cycles.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 11th April 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week – Resilient Markets
Written by Cormac Nevin.
If the lay observer had followed the headlines on BBC News over the course of March, and attempted to apply them to what they could reasonably expect from markets over the course of the month, they might well end the month a little bit perplexed. One of the top performing market components over the month was the NASDAQ 100 Index of US technology companies, which returned +9.5% in local terms (+7.3% in GBP) during a month whereby the specialist Silicon Valley Bank collapsed into ignominy. While larger tech names have proved to be a safe haven of sorts, it does beg questions of the operating environment for some of their smaller and more dynamic peers.
This was followed by ongoing distress in multiple other small- and medium-sized US lenders such as Signature Bank. In Europe, the knock-on effect in confidence culminated in the coerced purchase of Credit Suisse by UBS, a bank which is one of the largest in the world. Again, markets were not particularly fazed by this, with the S&P 500 Index of broad US equities finishing the month strongly and returning +1.5% for the month and the MSCI Europe Ex-UK Index up +1.3%, both in GBP terms.
While markets in recent weeks were up despite negative headlines, it remains critical to not be complacent and retain diversified exposures. Macro volatility could be back.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 3rd April 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.
The World In A Week - The narrowing leadership in US stocks
Written by Ilaria Massei.
Last Friday, we saw US stocks hit a nine-month high thanks to encouraging talks on debt ceiling and tech sector gains. The NASDAQ 100 rose 4.5% last week in GBP terms, boosted by the rally experienced by AI related stocks. There have only been a handful of stocks in the mega-cap market range that have led this rally in tech stocks. These include the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and NVIDIA. Last Thursday, shares of the chipmaker NVIDIA jumped 24%, making the company the sixth most highly valued public company in the world. Shares rose after the company beat consensus first-quarter earnings expectations by a wide margin and raised its profit outlook.
This extraordinary performance resurfaced the topic of narrow leadership in the US stock market, whereby fewer and fewer US tech stocks contribute to the broad index level return. Another crucial topic last week was the debt ceiling talks where policymakers delivered some encouraging news, signalling that they were working on a deal to raise the debt ceiling before the June deadline to avoid an unprecedented default. Meanwhile, the core (less food and energy) personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose by 0.4% in April, a tick above expectations.
Elsewhere, data released last Thursday signalled that the German economy fell into a recession in the first quarter, due to persistent high price increases and a surge in borrowing costs. GDP shrank 0.3% in the three months through March, a downward revision from an early estimate of zero growth. However, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers’ view is that interest rates would need to rise further and stay high to curb inflation in the medium term, potentially deteriorating the economy further.
The MSCI Japan declined to -1.1% last week in GBP terms but encouraging data released last week saw Japanese manufacturing activity expanding for the first time in seven months in May. The services sector also reported robust growth, as the reopening of the country to tourism led to a record rise in business activity.
Any opinions stated are honestly held but are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell, or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell, any investments or products.
The content of this document is for information only. It is advisable that you discuss your personal financial circumstances with a financial adviser before undertaking any investments.
All the data contained in the communication is believed to be reliable but may be inaccurate or incomplete. Unless otherwise specified all information is produced as of 30th May 2023.
© 2023 YOU Asset Management. All rights reserved.