Last week saw Boris Johnson confirm that England would proceed to the second phase of the lifting of lockdown restrictions on 12th April, as non-essential shops, beer gardens, hairdressers and gyms would be allowed to re-open their doors. There is a general expectation that consumer spending will pick up sharply as British people have been starved of access to shops, leisure activities and pubs. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, estimates suggest that an extra £180bn of savings will have been generated during the lockdown by June 2021. There have been significant worries that inflation will begin to pick up as consumer spending frantically increases and this could be the start of a remarkable period of consumption, which could resemble something similar to the “Roaring Twenties” frenzy. This period, starting in the 1920’s, saw accelerated consumer demand in leisure and cultural activities following years of hardship and loss from World War 1.
We are in a similar situation today, having faced travel restrictions and adhering to social distancing protocols to suppress the spread of the COVID-19 virus. There are clearly some distinct similarities between the “Roaring Twenties” and current day circumstances with significant pent-up demand expected in the travel and leisure industries. Tourism and luxury fashion are two industries that are expected to thrive as lockdowns begin to ease and vaccine rollout increases.
Looking ahead to the rest of the week, today is the start of the US corporate earnings season with the S&P 500 hitting fresh highs on Friday as markets prepare for the release of company Q1 financial results. The S&P 500 closed +3.4% last week, outperforming the global equity benchmark MSCI World Index which was up +3.1%.
